Market Intelligence

CRE Market Intelligence

36 submarkets across Texas and California. Click any marker to view detailed metrics.

Region
Property Type
Submarkets

36

Avg Cap Rate (%)

6.5%

Min

5.7%

Max

7.2%

Weak
Strong

Click a submarket on the map to view detailed metrics

Strongest Submarkets

Top 5 by Cap Rate (%)

  1. 1
    Downtown LA / Arts DistrictLos Angeles
    5.7%
  2. 2
    West LA / Santa MonicaLos Angeles
    5.7%
  3. 3
    South Bay / Long BeachLos Angeles
    5.7%
  4. 4
    Inland Empire (Ontario/Riverside)Los Angeles
    5.7%
  5. 5
    SF Downtown / SoMaSan Francisco Bay Area
    5.9%

Weakest Submarkets

Bottom 5 by Cap Rate (%)

  1. 1
    Downtown San AntonioSan Antonio
    7.2%
  2. 2
    North Central / Stone OakSan Antonio
    7.2%
  3. 3
    Medical Center / South TexasSan Antonio
    7.2%
  4. 4
    San Marcos / New BraunfelsSan Antonio
    7.2%
  5. 5
    Galleria / UptownHouston
    7.0%
Predictive AI

What Happens Next: Saguaro Gardens Apartments

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA · Multifamily · $18.5M Bridge Loan · 240 Units

Occupancy Forecast — 8 Quarters

91.3% now
Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27Q3 '27Q4 '27Q1 '28Q2 '28
Base: 93.8%
from 91.3%
Employment +2.1% YoYMF Permits −18% vs 2024Pop. Growth +1.8%

SARIMAX model · Employment leads occupancy by 6 months

Cap Rate Sensitivity — Exit Scenarios

5.8% now
2 Cuts (3.75%)+$1.1M
5.2%
Rates Hold (4.25%)+$540K
5.5%
Rates Rise (5.0%)−$920K
6.3%

Current spread: 280bp vs. 250bp historical mean — slightly wide

Error correction model · 40-70bp pass-through per 100bp Treasury move

Development Pipeline — Phoenix Submarket

Q3 '26
320
Q4 '26
280
Q1 '27
520
Q2 '27
460
Q3 '27
380
Q4 '27
350
Q1 '28
290
Q2 '28
310
Pre-leased
Available

2 competing projects within 3 mi delivering Q1 2027 — 480 units

Projected 1.2pp vacancy pressure, absorbed by Q3 2027

1% stock increase → 0.4-0.8pp vacancy · 85-95% MF absorption Year 1

Want Predictive Intelligence for Your Deals?

Every OloLand deal gets forward-looking scenario analysis powered by economic data, institutional memory, and calibrated models.

Economic data: FRED (Federal Reserve), BLS, Census Bureau. Models: SARIMAX occupancy, ECM cap rates, gravity-based pipeline impact. Forecasts are illustrative.

Data reflects 2025-2026 estimates derived from CBRE, JLL, and Cushman & Wakefield market reports. Not investment advice.

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