NextEra Energy's announced $66.8B all-stock acquisition of Dominion Energy (May 18, 2026)
creates the largest U.S. regulated-utility combination in two decades. OloLand's deterministic engines
ran the full buy-side mechanics — combined DCF, accretion-dilution, antitrust HHI, Beneish forensic, premium
analysis — directly against EDGAR primary filings within minutes of the announcement. Every output below
carries a run_id
the IC can replay; every input traces to a 10-Q, 10-K, or 8-K on file with the SEC.
How to read this dashboard: the scorecard below lists every engine call with its run_id and verdict. Each subsequent section drills into one engine (DCF waterfall, premium & accretion, synergies, Beneish, HHI, regulatory path) with the inputs visible inline. The trade-construction and catalyst tables at the bottom translate engine outputs into PM-actionable positions, and the final section is the full audit trail — every run_id plus the deal record in the OloLand UI.
| Engine | Output | Run ID | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premium analysis | 23.76% to unaffected | bc0d4006 | AT MEDIAN |
| Accretion / dilution | Y1 +7.5% / Y3 +14.95% | 15c92bc8 | STRONGLY ACCRETIVE |
| Combined DCF | $470.4B EV / $31.6B synergy NPV | 426ac5be | ENGINE-DERIVED |
| Antitrust HHI | Pre 114 / Post 182 / Δ 68 | 6c51ecb5 | CLEAN |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.774 LOW (no manipulation) | engine call | CLEAN |
| fetch_public_deal_facts | has_data=true, CIK persisted, 15 filings | engine call | FIXED |
| compose_ic_memo | 8 sections, freshness_verified=true | 405e71ea | NATIVE |
| get_deal_risks (engine) | 25 risks cited from both 10-Qs | engine call | COMPREHENSIVE |
| get_deal_indicators | 103 DD risks (0 high / 45 med / 58 low) | engine call | MEDIUM RISK |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Target base revenue (Dominion FY2025) | $16,506M |
| Acquirer base revenue (NEE) | $24,753M |
| Combined WACC | 6.20% |
| Terminal growth | 2.50% |
| Projection years | 5 |
| Target standalone EV | $148,141M |
| Acquirer standalone EV | $290,684M |
| Sum-of-parts EV | $438,824M |
| (+) Implied synergy NPV | $31,579M |
| (−) Integration costs | ($900M) |
| COMBINED EV (ENGINE) | $470,404M |
| (−) Combined net debt | ($140,300M) |
| Implied PF equity per share | $118.50 |
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| M-Score | -2.774 | BELOW -1.78 threshold (lower = safer) |
| Manipulation risk | FALSE | Clean |
| Risk level | LOW | Highest pass tier |
| Periods | FY2025 → FY2026 | 3-yr history loaded (FY24/25/26) |
| Coverage | 6/8 (75%) | DSRI & SGAI imputed neutral |
| TATA (accruals/assets) | 0.0043 | Very low — cash-backed earnings |
| LVGI (leverage) | 0.062 | No pre-deal leverage drift |
| GMI (gross margin) | 1.000 | No margin deterioration |
| Metric | Value | DOJ Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-merger HHI | 114 | <1,500 unconcentrated |
| Post-merger HHI | 182 | <1,500 unconcentrated |
| Δ HHI | 68 | <100 = safe harbor |
| Presumptive challenge? | NO | — |
Market def: U.S. regulated electric (gen + T&D). ZERO retail overlap (NEE/FPL=FL; D=VA/NC/SC). Wholesale PJM combined = 8.2%.
| # | Risk | Source | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CVOW Section 232 tariff +$200-300M | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
| 2 | D: $6.0-9.5B long-term debt issuance 2026 | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
| 3 | NEE: $1.7B guarantees / indemnifications / LCs | NEE 10-Q 4/23/2026 | Medium |
| 4 | VA residential bills +65.5% (2007-2025), +61% projected by 2035 | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
| 5 | NEE: alleged campaign finance violations | NEE 10-Q 4/23/2026 | Medium |
| 6 | Nuclear insurance assess. up to $1.16B ($664M FPL) | NEE 10-Q 4/23/2026 | Medium |
| 7 | D: 26-28% load from data centers (Loudoun County, VA) | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
| 8 | D: CVOW FX €2.6B + 5.1B kr fixed-price contracts | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
| 9 | NEE: $7.4B PPA / acquisition guarantees | NEE 10-Q 4/23/2026 | Medium |
| 10 | D: total long-term debt $45.11B + jr subordinated $5.98B | D 10-Q 5/1/2026 | Medium |
Top 10 of 25 engine-extracted risks. Full set in OloLand UI. Plus 78 additional DD-process risks (45 medium + 58 low) for a total of 103.
| Filing date | Form | Items | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 8-K | 1.01, 7.01, 9.01 | ★ THE MERGER ANNOUNCEMENT |
| 2026-05-07 | 8-K | 5.07 | Proxy vote results |
| 2026-05-01 | 10-Q | — | Q1 2026 quarterly |
| 2026-05-01 | 8-K | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 2026 earnings release |
| 2026-04-08 | 8-K | 1.01, 8.01, 9.01 | Material agreement |
| 2026-02-23 | 10-K | — | FY2025 annual |
| 2026-02-23 | 8-K | 2.02, 9.01 | FY2025 earnings release |
| 2025-02-27 | 10-K | — | FY2024 annual |
| 2024-02-23 | 10-K | — | FY2023 annual |
| 2023-02-21 to 2018-02-27 | 10-K × 5 | — | Historical FY2022-2017 annuals |
▸ BUY on pullbacks $85-88
▸ Sell calls $105+ Q1 2027
▸ Hedge with OTM puts Mar-Jun 2027
▸ Target $115 (12mo) / $135 (24mo)
▸ Engine PF equity per-share: $118.50
▸ Stop $78 (post-VA SCC denial)
▸ HOLD existing exposure
▸ DO NOT add — capped by exch ratio
▸ For pure AI-power exposure:
→ Constellation (CEG)
→ Vistra (VST)
▸ Current gross spread: 10-15%
▸ Spread-implied prob: ~78%
▸ Internal estimate: 75-80% (fair value)
▸ Trigger: VA SCC pre-approval (Q4 2026)
▸ Exit: NRC approval (Q2 2027)
▸ No edge today
| Quarter | Catalyst | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | VA SCC filing | Initial procedural schedule, intervenor list |
| Q4 2026 | HSR Second Request + shareholder votes | HSR DOJ workgroup tone; vote turnout |
| Q1 2027 | FERC §203 procedural milestones | Conditions menu first signal |
| Q2 2027 | VA SCC hearings + initial decision | THE SWING EVENT |
| Q3 2027 | NRC license transfer + expected close window | Close timing crystallizes |
| Earnings | Every Dominion DC pipeline update | Next: Q2 2026 in August — incremental GW signed |